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| #46326 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:46 AM 16.Sep.2005) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 42 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005 OPHELIA IS PRESENTING A SHEARED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING...WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. RADAR POSITION FIXES FROM COASTAL WSR-88DS ARE EAST OF AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE POSITIONS...SUGGESTING THE VORTEX IS TILTED. THE LAST PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 996 MB...ALONG WITH 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 61 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 50 KT BASED ON THIS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 025/7. OPHELIA IS BECOMING EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES...AND AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST BREAKS DOWN THE STORM SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE. THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED AFTER 72 HR BY A MORE EASTWARD MOTION AT HIGH LATITUDE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48 HR...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE. THE NEW TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE OLD TRACK...WHICH REQUIRES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AT THIS TIME. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HR AS OPHELIA REMAINS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER. AFTER 24 HR...COLDER WATER...INCREASING SHEAR...AND THE ONSET OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN 36-48 HR. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/1500Z 35.7N 74.4W 50 KT 12HR VT 17/0000Z 37.1N 73.1W 50 KT 24HR VT 17/1200Z 39.8N 70.6W 50 KT 36HR VT 18/0000Z 42.8N 66.7W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 18/1200Z 46.0N 60.8W 45 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 19/1200Z 50.0N 47.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 20/1200Z 53.0N 32.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 21/1200Z 53.0N 19.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
