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| #463856 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 AM 03.Oct.2011) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 1100 AM AST MON OCT 03 2011 SEVERAL RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES INDICATE THAT PHILIPPE HAS A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL EYE. ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAD BEEN LOCATED ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...WE JUST RECEIVED A 1250 UTC ASCAT PASS THAT INDICATES THE CENTER MAY HAVE DIVED SOUTH...OR EVEN RE-FORMED...NEAR THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. THE ASCAT DATA ALSO INDICATES THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NEAR 55 KT. PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF NORTHERLY SHEAR...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. SINCE THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY...AND EVEN STRENGTHEN DESPITE THE HOSTILE CONDITIONS...THERE IS NOT MUCH REASON TO DOUBT THAT IT WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. PHILIPPE IS THEN EXPECTED TO REACH A NARROW UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BY DAY 3...WHICH SHOULD FOSTER SOME STRENGTHENING AT THAT TIME. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE NOW TAKE PHILIPPE TO OR JUST UNDER HURRICANE STRENGTH...BUT FOR NOW THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STOPS JUST SHORT OF SHOWING THAT. THE 00 UTC CYCLE OF THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE PHILIPPE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THIS CONTINUES IN THE 12 UTC CYCLE. WITH THE RE-LOCATION OF THE CENTER...THE LONG-TERM 24-HOUR MOTION IS 250 DEGREES AT 10 KT. THE LOW-TO MID-LEVEL HIGH THAT IS STEERING PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BE REPLACED BY AN EXPANDING CUT-OFF LOW NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN SHARPLY NORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 3. A NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD ACCELERATION IS INDICATED ON DAYS 4 AND 5...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LIES VERY NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 24.8N 55.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 25.0N 57.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 25.2N 59.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 25.7N 60.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 26.5N 60.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 28.5N 59.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 30.5N 55.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 32.5N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ FORECASTER BERG |
