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| #464293 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:59 PM 05.Oct.2011) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 47 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 500 PM AST WED OCT 05 2011 THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF PHILIPPE HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY. A 1753 UTC TRMM OVERPASS SHOWS THAT THE CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS...WITH SOME INCREASE IN BANDING EVIDENT IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY. IN ADDITION...RECENT GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF AROUND 55 KT. IT SEEMS THAT THE SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE IS FINALLY DECREASING AS PREDICTED AND PHILIPPE HAS A VERY SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING. THE REDUCTION IN SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS STRONG WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IMPINGE UPON THE CYCLONE ON THURSDAY. AFTER THAT...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER AND PHILIPPE WILL ALSO BE INTERACTING WITH A FRONT IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS AT OR JUST ABOVE THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT IS MUCH BELOW THE MORE AGGRESSIVE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS. BY 72 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS UNANIMOUSLY SHOW PHILIPPE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. PHILIPPE HAS TURNED NORTHWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 360/5 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT...HOWEVER THE GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN 6 HOURS AGO IN MOVING THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN DAYS 4 AND 5. AS A RESULT...THE NEW TRACK SHOWS LESS NORTHEASTWARD MOTION THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 25.8N 61.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 26.6N 61.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 27.8N 59.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 28.8N 57.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 29.9N 55.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 35.0N 48.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/1800Z 41.5N 44.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/1800Z 45.0N 41.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
