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| #464389 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:53 AM 06.Oct.2011) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 49 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 500 AM AST THU OCT 06 2011 PHILIPPE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH CONVECTION INCREASING NEAR THE CENTER AND A MORE SYMMETRIC OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN. MICROWAVE DATA FROM EARLIER ALSO SHOW THAT A LOW-LEVEL EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED... THOUGH NOTHING RECENT HAS BEEN RECEIVED. A BLEND OF THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB GIVES AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KT. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LIKELY WITH ONLY MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND WARM WATER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THUS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW PHILIPPE ATTAINING HURRICANE STATUS LATER TODAY...WITH WEAKENING COMMENCING BY LATE TOMORROW DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL LIKELY START IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...AND BE COMPLETE BY DAY 3. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 030/7. PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER ACCELERATE TODAY AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE GENERALLY TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST WITH SOME ACCELERATION AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE NEW FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH POORER AGREEMENT DURING THE EXTRATROPICAL PORTION OF THE TRACK...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE RECEIVED FROM THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER IN THE LATER PERIODS...WHICH RESULTS IN A SLOWER FORECAST THAN PREVIOUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 26.8N 60.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 27.8N 59.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 28.8N 58.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 29.7N 55.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 31.2N 51.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 38.0N 45.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 10/0600Z 42.0N 42.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/0600Z 49.0N 38.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
