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| #464536 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:50 AM 07.Oct.2011) TCDAT2 HURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 54 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 1100 AM AST FRI OCT 07 2011 SSM/IS MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE EYEWALL OF PHILIPPE HAS BEGUN TO DETERIORATE...LIKELY DUE TO THE INCREASING SHEAR AND DECREASING SSTS WHICH ARE AFFECTING THE STORM. ALSO...RECENT VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO BECOME SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST. THESE CHANGES INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE IS STARTING TO WEAKEN...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 75 KT. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER THAT...PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT HIGH LATITUDES. PHILIPPE IS MAINTAINING A FORWARD MOTION OF 065 DEGREES AT 14 KT. AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS ANTICIPATED AS PHILIPPE INTERACTS WITH A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE FORECAST FOR THE EXTRATROPICAL PHASE OF THE CYCLONE FOLLOWS GUIDANCE FROM THE NCEP OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 29.9N 55.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 31.1N 53.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 33.7N 49.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 37.0N 46.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 41.0N 43.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/1200Z 47.5N 37.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/1200Z 55.0N 30.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/1200Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY |
