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| #464845 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 AM 08.Oct.2011) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 58 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 1100 AM AST SAT OCT 08 2011 MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES AND REPORTS FROM DRIFTING BUOY 41575 INDICATE THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION. OTHERWISE...THE CYCLONE IS ON TRACK AND IS ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...OR 050/25 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. PHILIPPE IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT EXTENDS FROM NEWFOUNDLAND SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND BACK AROUND TO A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO ACCELERATE PHILIPPE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER COLD WATERS THAT LIE JUST NORTH OF 37N LATITUDE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES CLOSE TO THE NHC CONSENSUS MODELS TVCN AND TVCA. SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF MORE THAN 40 KT...COUPLED WITH SSTS BELOW 24C...IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BETWEEN 12 AND 24 HOURS. PHILIPPE COULD ALSO MERGE WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM DURING THAT SAME TIME PERIOD. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT PHILIPPE SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND BE FULLY POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL BY 24 HOURS OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM INTENSITY MODELS AND GUIDANCE FROM THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. WIND RADII ARE BASED ON INPUT FROM THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 33.2N 47.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 35.7N 45.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 39.1N 42.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 10/0000Z 42.5N 39.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 10/1200Z 46.3N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/1200Z 54.0N 28.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/1200Z 59.0N 18.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
