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| #464912 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:53 PM 08.Oct.2011) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 59 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 500 PM AST SAT OCT 08 2011 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH PHILIPPE HAS BECOME RAGGED AND ELONGATED NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IMPINGING ON THE CYCLONE. PHILIPPE IS ALSO MOVING OVER COOLER WATER NOW AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS QUICKLY ENCROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS A RESULT...PHILIPPE IS LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/26 KT. PHILIPPE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. THE NHC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE... AND IS SIMILAR TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS AND GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 35.3N 46.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 37.4N 43.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 09/1800Z 40.5N 41.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 10/0600Z 44.0N 38.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 10/1800Z 48.5N 34.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/1800Z 56.5N 24.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
