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| #46564 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 PM 17.Sep.2005) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND A BROAD AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION CENTER ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE STRONG CONVECTION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN...WITH THE REPORTED POSITION SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB AND THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 1500 FT SO FAR ARE 40 KT. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE DEPRESSION IS NOT QUITE A TROPICAL STORM...BUT IT SHOULD REACH THAT STATUS SOMETIME TONIGHT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/8. STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN UNUSUALLY WEAK FOR THAT PART OF THE ATLANTIC...AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RATHER SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS... WITH PERHAPS A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AFTER THREE DAYS TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO PASS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THEM STILL DO NOT NOT INITIALIZE THE SYSTEM VERY WELL. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION...AND LIES ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF MODEL GUIDANCE. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER 30C WATER FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT TO PERHAPS MODERATE. THUS... STEADY STRENGTHENING SHOULD OCCUR. THE SHIPS MODEL HAS A LITTLE LESS INTENSIFICATION THAN 6 HR AGO AS IT IS FORECASTING A LITTLE MORE SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE GFDL CONTINUES TO SHOW RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 HR AND TO 95 KT BY 120 HR...IN BETWEEN SHIPS AND THE GFDL. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK DOES NOT IMMEDIATELY REQUIRE WATCHES OR WARNINGS. WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/2100Z 13.8N 55.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 18/0600Z 14.6N 56.1W 35 KT 24HR VT 18/1800Z 15.6N 57.1W 45 KT 36HR VT 19/0600Z 16.6N 58.1W 55 KT 48HR VT 19/1800Z 17.6N 59.1W 65 KT 72HR VT 20/1800Z 19.5N 61.0W 75 KT 96HR VT 21/1800Z 21.5N 62.0W 85 KT 120HR VT 22/1800Z 23.5N 63.0W 95 KT |
