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| #46649 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:37 PM 17.Sep.2005) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 48 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005 DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...OPHELIA HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 24-25 KT...ALL THE WHILE LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THERE IS NO DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NMI OF THE CENTER...AND EVEN WHAT CONVECTION THERE IS HAS BEEN RAPIDLY DECREASING. WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL-DEFINED...SURROUNDING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW- TO MID-60F RANGE. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SUGGEST THAT OPHELIA IS...OR IS VERY NEAR...BEING AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. OPHELIA FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST OVER OR NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT...AND ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS POSSIBLY A GALE AREA. THIS WILL BE THE LAST TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY ON OPHELIA. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN FORECAST PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE...AND IN HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY NOAA'S OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0300Z 43.9N 63.8W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 12HR VT 18/1200Z 46.2N 59.6W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 19/0000Z 48.8N 53.4W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 19/1200Z 50.6N 47.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 20/0000Z 52.2N 40.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 21/0000Z 57.0N 24.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 22/0000Z 63.0N 11.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 23/0000Z 67.0N 5.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
