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| #46679 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 AM 18.Sep.2005) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005 SATELLITE IMAGES AFTER THE ECLIPSE SHOW A SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE UP TO 3.0...CORRESPONDING TO 45 KT. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE CENTER IS THAT WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAIN MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE T-NUMBER. THE INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY SET TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE STRENGTH OF THE STORM WHEN VISIBLE IMAGERY BECOMES AVAILABLE. PHILIPPE'S UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED...ALTHOUGH IT IS RESTRICTED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE THROUGH 72 HOURS. MY WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE SHIPS AT DAYS 4-5 BECAUSE THE WESTERLY SHEAR MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS INDICATED BY THIS GUIDANCE AT THESE LATER FORECAST TIMES. PHILIPPE IS ESTIMATED TO BE CONTINUING ON A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...325/04. THERE IS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS REGIME WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THEREFORE A CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS PREDICTED. MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT ON THIS KIND OF TRACK. THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS PRETTY MUCH IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE. ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK DOES NOT NECESSITATE ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES...INTERESTS IN THESE ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PHILIPPE. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0900Z 14.6N 55.5W 40 KT 12HR VT 18/1800Z 15.3N 56.0W 45 KT 24HR VT 19/0600Z 16.4N 56.9W 55 KT 36HR VT 19/1800Z 17.5N 57.8W 65 KT 48HR VT 20/0600Z 18.7N 58.7W 70 KT 72HR VT 21/0600Z 21.0N 60.5W 80 KT 96HR VT 22/0600Z 23.5N 61.5W 85 KT 120HR VT 23/0600Z 26.0N 62.5W 95 KT |
