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| #46743 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:11 AM 18.Sep.2005) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005 CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED SOME MORE NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CENTER...AND BANDING FEATURES ARE EVIDENT IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. AS A RESULT... DVORAK T NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE INCREASED TO 3.0...SUPPORTING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 45 KT. CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...SINCE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTHWARD ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ORIENTED EAST-WEST ALONG ABOUT 25N IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO WEAKEN AND PROVIDE A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH AT LEAST 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IN BRINGING PHILIPPE TO 85 KT BY 72 HOURS...AND THEN FOLLOWS THE GFDL IN FORECASTING ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING THROUGH FIVE DAYS. THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION OF 335/6 IS A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...PERHAPS DUE TO THE CENTER BEING DRAWN IN THAT DIRECTION BY THE LARGE CONVECTIVE BURST THAT DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH TAKES THE DEVELOPING STORM NORTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUALY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CELLS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND OVER THE EASTERN U.S. ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK DOES NOT NECESSITATE ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES...INTERESTS IN THESE ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PHILIPPE. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/1500Z 15.2N 55.7W 45 KT 12HR VT 19/0000Z 16.0N 56.2W 55 KT 24HR VT 19/1200Z 17.1N 57.0W 65 KT 36HR VT 20/0000Z 18.2N 58.0W 70 KT 48HR VT 20/1200Z 19.4N 58.8W 75 KT 72HR VT 21/1200Z 22.0N 60.0W 85 KT 96HR VT 22/1200Z 24.5N 61.0W 90 KT 120HR VT 23/1200Z 27.0N 62.0W 100 KT |
