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| #467800 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 PM 23.Oct.2011) TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011 2100 UTC SUN OCT 23 2011 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM PUNTA CASTILLA EASTWARD TO THE NICARAGUA BORDER. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA CASTILLA EASTWARD TO THE NICARAGUA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 81.9W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 81.9W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 81.6W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.4N 82.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 45SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.8N 82.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 45SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.0N 83.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 17.1N 84.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 30SE 0SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 45SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 17.3N 86.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 17.7N 87.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 19.0N 88.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 81.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
