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| #46791 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 PM 18.Sep.2005) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005 A DEEP BURST OF CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C HAS DEVELOPED VERY NEAR THE CIRCULATION DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE STILL HOLDING AT T3.0/ 45 KT...BUT THE INTENSITY COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/07. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UNSEASONABLY WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT AND ON THIS SCENARIO... WITH THE ONLY DIFFERENCE BEING THE FORWARD SPEED. THE NOGAPS MODEL IS THE FASTEST AND THE GFS IS THE SLOWEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS NEAR THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS PHILIPPE PRODUCING A FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN AND PRODUCING LOW VERTICAL SHEAR. WITH THE CYCLONE MOVING OVER 30C SSTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AT LEAST SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING SEEMS TO BE IN ORDER. IT NOW APPEARS THAT PHILIPPE WILL NOT REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF ANY WATCHES OR WARNING FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES. FORECASTER STEWART/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/2100Z 15.9N 55.9W 45 KT 12HR VT 19/0600Z 16.7N 56.3W 55 KT 24HR VT 19/1800Z 17.8N 57.3W 65 KT 36HR VT 20/0600Z 18.9N 58.2W 70 KT 48HR VT 20/1800Z 20.1N 58.7W 75 KT 72HR VT 21/1800Z 23.0N 59.5W 85 KT 96HR VT 22/1800Z 25.5N 60.5W 90 KT 120HR VT 23/1800Z 28.5N 61.5W 95 KT |
