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| #4680 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:38 AM 13.Aug.2004) TCDAT3 HURRICANE CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004 RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOW THAT AFTER CROSSING CUBA...THE EYE STILL REMAINS WELL-DEFINED WITH ABOUT AN 18 N MI DIAMETER. MAX WINDS REPORTED BY THE PLANE WERE 104 KNOTS AT 700 MB WITH AN EXTRAPOLATED PRESSURE OF 968 MB AND 970 MB BY A DROP. KEY WEST RADAR SHOWED DOPPLER WINDS HIGHER THAN 100 KNOTS. INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING ADJUSTED TO 95 KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THE WATER IS WARM. THEREFORE....CHARLEY IS LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE LANDFALL. CHARLEY IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN GUIDANCE AND MOST OF THE MODELS UNANIMOUSLY BRING THE HURRICANE ON A NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE HURRICANE VERY CLOSE TO THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA BRINGING THE CENTER INLAND WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BETWEEN 12 AND 24 HOURS. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK FORECAST...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER. THE EXTENTION OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER REQUIRES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE EAST FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS AS INDICATED. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0900Z 23.9N 82.9W 95 KT 12HR VT 13/1800Z 26.3N 82.9W 105 KT 24HR VT 14/0600Z 29.8N 82.5W 80 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 14/1800Z 33.0N 81.0W 40 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 15/0600Z 38.0N 78.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 16/0600Z 45.5N 73.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 17/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW |
