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| #468080 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 AM 24.Oct.2011) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011 500 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2011 THE CLOUD PATTERN OF RINA HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS ONE LARGE CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER POSITION WITH A COUPLE OF ADJACENT SMALLER CLUSTERS...BUT NOT MUCH EVIDENCE OF CURVED BANDS. VERY LITTLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 35 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW/CIMSS. RINA IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL BUT IS EXHIBITING FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SLIGHT LESSENING OF THE SHEAR COULD OCCUR IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALONG WITH SURFACE AND RADIOSONDE DATA SHOW A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER LOW- TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS EXISTS JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE STORM. GIVEN THESE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS...ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE LGEM GUIDANCE AND BELOW THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS. USING A COMBINATION OF CENTER FIXES FROM GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 330/5. A 500 MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PASSING TO THE NORTH AND WILL SOON BYPASS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. AFTER THE TROUGH DEPARTS THE AREA...A WEAK RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF RINA. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST...BUT AT A VERY SLOW RATE OF FORWARD SPEED...DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD A STRONGER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A NORTHWARD TURN. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH ARE WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE GFDL AND HWRF. THESE LATTER MODELS ARE PREDICTING RINA TO BECOME A STRONG HURRICANE THAT WOULD RESPOND TO THE DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF. GIVEN THE PREDICTED ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...SUCH A SCENARIO SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 16.7N 82.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 17.0N 82.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 17.4N 83.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 17.5N 84.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 17.6N 85.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 18.5N 86.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 19.5N 87.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 29/0600Z 20.5N 87.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA |
