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| #468184 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 PM 24.Oct.2011) TCDAT3 HURRICANE RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011 500 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2011 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SEVERAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER OF RINA AND A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS NOT REPORTED ANY STRONGER WINDS SINCE THEIR INITIAL PASS INTO THE CENTER JUST BEFORE 1800 UTC...AND BASED ON THE EARLIER DATA THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 65 KT. RINA WILL BE TRAVERSING VERY WARM WATER AND REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE ONLY NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR INTENSIFICATION IS AN AREA OF DRY AIR TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. SO FAR...RINA HAS REMAINED WELL INSULATED FROM THE DRY AIR AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE DRY AIR WILL NOT REACH THE CORE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT... SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND RINA IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE ONE ISSUED IN THE SPECIAL ADVISORY AND IS NEAR THE GFDL AND HWRF GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...IT IS CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY SMALL SIZE OF THE HURRICANE...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE RAPID CHANGES BOTH UP AND DOWN IN ITS INTENSITY. THE AIRCRAFT FIXES SHOW THAT THE HURRICANE HAS SLOWED DOWN. A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO STEER RINA WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD THE HURRICANE SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD...THEN NORTHWARD IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT...THE TRACK GUIDANCE BECOMES QUITE DIVERGENT WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF TAKING THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD...AND THE GFS SHOWING AN EASTWARD OR EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION. FOR NOW...THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES AND SHOWS A SLOW EAST-NORTHEAST MOTION NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...AND THE POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...THERE IS MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG-RANGE TRACK FORECAST OF RINA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 17.1N 83.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 17.2N 83.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 17.3N 84.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 17.6N 85.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 18.1N 86.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 19.8N 87.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 21.0N 87.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 29/1800Z 21.5N 85.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
