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| #468685 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 AM 27.Oct.2011) TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE RINA ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011 400 AM CDT THU OCT 27 2011 ...RINA WEAKENS AS IT HEADS FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 86.9W ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ENE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA TO SAN FELIPE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA GRUESA * THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO PROGRESO PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RINA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.9 WEST. RINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RINA WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RINA COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER OBSERVATIONS IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. RAINFALL...RINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND COZUMEL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF THE CENTER. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
