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| #468820 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:50 PM 27.Oct.2011) TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011 700 PM CDT THU OCT 27 2011 ...RINA VERY NEAR COZUMEL... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.1N 87.2W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SSW OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE EAST AND NORTH COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO PROGRESO FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST. RINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... THE CENTER OF RINA SHOULD MOVE OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN AND ADJACENT ISLANDS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR FROM CANCUN SUGGEST THAT RINA IS LESS ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RINA COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS EARLY AS FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD TONIGHT. RAINFALL...RINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND COZUMEL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF THE CENTER. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
