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| #46933 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:53 AM 19.Sep.2005) TCDAT2 HURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALED A SOMEWHAT RAGGED HURRICANE WITH THE CENTER DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. AN 1156 UTC SSMI PASS WAS VERY HELPFUL IN DETERMINING THAT THE CENTER WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...A NEW CONVECTIVE BURST HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSOUS 65 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. BASED ON THE SSMI MICROWAVE DATA...THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 345/6 KT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG 60W. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT IS A LITTLE FASTER AT 96 AND 120 HOURS...SINCE THE MODEL CONSENSUS BEGINS TO ACCELERATE PHILIPPE TO THE NORTH THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST. DUE TO THE RAGGED SATELLITE APPEARANCE AND MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY OVER THE CYCLONE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE DURING THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN BETWEEN 36-72 HOURS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW PHILIPPE TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CLOSELY. FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/1500Z 17.4N 56.3W 65 KT 12HR VT 20/0000Z 18.1N 56.7W 65 KT 24HR VT 20/1200Z 19.2N 57.4W 70 KT 36HR VT 21/0000Z 20.2N 58.0W 75 KT 48HR VT 21/1200Z 21.7N 58.7W 80 KT 72HR VT 22/1200Z 24.5N 59.5W 90 KT 96HR VT 23/1200Z 27.5N 60.0W 90 KT 120HR VT 24/1200Z 31.5N 59.5W 90 KT |
