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| #46994 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 PM 19.Sep.2005) TCDAT2 HURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005 PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A RAGGED APPEARANCE IN SATELLLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTION WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS REMAINS OVER THE ESTIMATED CENTER. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE ARE VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 340/6 KT. THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS THE SAME WITH PHILIPPE EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG 60W. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE EASTWARD AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS ADJUSTED AS WELL. THE FORECAST MOTION WAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY N THE EXTENDED RANGE SINCE BOTH THE GLOBAL MODELS AND CONSENSUS TRACKS BEGIN TO ACCELERATE PHILIPPE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE HIGH OVER THE EAST ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE GUNA AND CONU CONSENSUS TRACKS. MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR ENHANCED BY THE OUTFLOW FROM RITA WILL LIKELY INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT-TERM. THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO STRENGTHEN AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS PHILIPPE TO A 90-KT HURRICANE. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO AGAIN INCREASE IN 96 TO 120 HOURS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL CLOSELY BUT IS FAR LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFDL WHICH BRINGS PHILIPPE TO A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS. FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/2100Z 18.0N 56.5W 65 KT 12HR VT 20/0600Z 18.7N 56.8W 65 KT 24HR VT 20/1800Z 19.9N 57.2W 70 KT 36HR VT 21/0600Z 21.8N 57.8W 75 KT 48HR VT 21/1800Z 23.7N 58.5W 80 KT 72HR VT 22/1800Z 27.5N 59.5W 90 KT 96HR VT 23/1800Z 31.5N 59.5W 85 KT 120HR VT 24/1800Z 36.0N 56.0W 80 KT |
