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| #47101 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 AM 20.Sep.2005) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF RITA IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED... BUT THE CYCLONE STILL LACKS A CLEAR AND PERSISTENT EYEWALL SIGNATURE. FLIGHT-LEVEL AND DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONAISSANCE AIRCRAFT STILL DO NOT QUITE SUPPORT UPGRADING RITA TO A HURRICANE. A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 72 KT WINDS WOULD CORRESPOND TO 65 KT IN AN EYEWALL...BUT RITA DOES NOT HAVE A TRUE EYEWALL AND DROPSONDE DATA INDICATE THAT 90 PERCENT IS NOT THE APPROPRIATE ADJUSTMENT WITH THIS STORM AT THIS TIME. THE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 60 KT AT THIS TIME. RITA REMAINS BASICALLY ON TRACK...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 285/13. LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IN THE EARLY GOING...AS RITA MOVES SOUTH OF MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GFS...UKMET... AND GFDL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD TOWARD THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...WHILE THE NOGAPS IS STILL ON THE SOUTH END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN EXTREME SOUTH TEXAS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE WESTWARD TOWARD THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THIS POINT IT IS WAY TO EARLY TO SPECIFY WHERE THE GULF LANDFALL MIGHT OCCUR. RITA IS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH VERY SOON. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING BUT NOT OVERLY SO...WITH OUTFLOW A LITTLE SQUASHED TO THE NORTH AND NON-EXISTENT TO THE SOUTH...AND THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE LOCATED WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. EVEN THE RADAR PRESENTATION LOOKS ELONGATED. STEADY...BUT NOT EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE UPPER PATTERN COULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND RITA IS STILL FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE MOST RECENT SHIPS GUIDANCE...HOWEVER...DOES NOT QUITE GET RITA THERE...AND I WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF RITA ENDS UP FALLING JUST SHORT OF THAT THRESHOLD. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0900Z 23.7N 79.5W 60 KT 12HR VT 20/1800Z 24.1N 81.7W 70 KT 24HR VT 21/0600Z 24.4N 84.4W 80 KT 36HR VT 21/1800Z 24.6N 87.0W 90 KT 48HR VT 22/0600Z 24.7N 89.3W 95 KT 72HR VT 23/0600Z 25.5N 93.0W 100 KT 96HR VT 24/0600Z 28.5N 96.0W 100 KT 120HR VT 25/0600Z 32.5N 97.5W 35 KT...INLAND |
