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| #47425 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:46 AM 21.Sep.2005) TCDAT3 HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005 THE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SCHEDULED FOR THIS MORNING WAS SCRUBBED DUE TO ELECTRONICS PROBLEMS ON MULTIPLE AIRCRAFT. HOWEVER...BEFORE THE EYE WENT OUT OF RANGE OF THE VELOCITY DATA FROM THE KEY WEST WSR-88D...WINDS OF 100-115 KT WERE SEEN AT BETWEEN 9000-13000 FT. ADDITIONALLY...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 115 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES. BASED ON THIS AND EXTRAPOLATION OF TRENDS FROM THE LAST AIRCRAFT MISSION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 105 KT...AND THIS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE GIVE THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275-280 DEGREES AT 12 KT. RITA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HR OR SO ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD...ALLOWING A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS RUN...AS THE GFS HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD FROM ITS PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHILE THE NOGAPS AND GFDN HAVE SHIFTED NORTHWARD FROM THEIR SOUTH TEXAS LANDFALL. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...BEING NUDGED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DURING THE FIRST 48-72 HR AND SLIGHTLY WESTWARD THEREAFTER WITH A LANDFALL ON THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST IN JUST OVER 72 HR. HOWEVER...THESE CHANGES ARE IN THE NOISE LEVEL. THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE OF RITA GIVES EVERY IMPRESSION THAT RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS CONTINUING...AND WHILE THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL MENTIONED EARLIER IS NOT AS APPARENT NOW THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS STILL GOING STRONG. THUS INTENSIFICATION COULD CONTINUE UNTIL A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE OCCURS OR UNTIL THE EYE MOVES WEST OF THE LOOP CURRENT IN ABOUT 24 HR. THE GFDL MODEL PEAKS RITA AT ABOUT 120 KT IN 12-18 HR...THE SHIPS MODEL PEAKS IT AT 122 KT IN 48 HR...AND THE SUPERENSEMBLE PEAKS IT AT 131 KT IN 48 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BRING THE SYSTEM TO 125 KT IN 24 HR AS A BLEND OF THESE FORECASTS. HOWEVER...IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE IF RITA BECAME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE IN THE NEXT 24 HR BEFORE WEAKENING SOMEWHAT DUE TO A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE OR THE LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WEST OF THE LOOP CURRENT. RITA SHOULD MAINTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS UNTIL LANDFALL...THEN WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0900Z 24.3N 84.6W 105 KT 12HR VT 21/1800Z 24.4N 86.5W 115 KT 24HR VT 22/0600Z 24.7N 88.7W 125 KT 36HR VT 22/1800Z 25.2N 90.8W 125 KT 48HR VT 23/0600Z 25.9N 92.8W 125 KT 72HR VT 24/0600Z 28.0N 95.5W 120 KT 96HR VT 25/0600Z 31.5N 97.0W 50 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 26/0600Z 35.5N 96.5W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING |
