Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #47479 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:49 AM 21.Sep.2005) TCDAT3 HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005 THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL NOT BE IN THE AREA OF RITA UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS TYPICAL OF AN INTENSE HURRICANE WITH A CLEAR EYE SURROUNDED BY VERY DEEP CONVECTION. INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 120 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS ARE PEAKING NEAR 7.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...SUGGESTING WINDS OF NEAR 140 KNOTS. I WILL WAIT FOR THE PLANE TO REACH RITA TO INCREASE THE WINDS FURTHER...IF NECESSARY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING AND RITA...AS KATRINA DID...WILL BE CROSSING THE LOOP CURRENT OR AN AREA OF HIGH HEAT CONTENT WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THIS WOULD AID THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. THEREAFTER...THE INTENSITY WILL BE CONTROLLED BY CHANGES IN THE EYEWALL WHICH ARE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT. THE HEAT CONTENT IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AS IN THE AREA OF THE LOOP CURRENT SO SLIGHT WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED....BUT RITA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...AT LEAST CATEGORY THREE. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN. RITA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS SOUTH OF A STRONG HIGH. AS THE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD...RITA WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST- NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST BASICALLY TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND HAS NOT CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. BOTH THE GFS AND THE GFDL SUGGEST THAT THE WIND FIELD WILL EXPAND. THEREFORE THE FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINLY. ON THIS TRACK AND DUE TO THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH RITA...A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/1500Z 24.3N 85.9W 120 KT 12HR VT 22/0000Z 24.5N 87.9W 135 KT 24HR VT 22/1200Z 25.0N 90.0W 130 KT 36HR VT 23/0000Z 25.7N 92.0W 125 KT 48HR VT 23/1200Z 26.6N 94.0W 120 KT 72HR VT 24/1200Z 29.0N 96.5W 100 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 25/1200Z 32.5N 97.5W 40 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 26/1200Z 35.5N 97.0W 25 KT...INLAND |
