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| #47781 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:53 PM 22.Sep.2005) TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA GRADUALLY HEADING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN....AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STROM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST OR ABOUT 405 MILES... 650 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 390 MILES... 630 KM...SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST LATE FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. ANYTROPICAL STROM FORCE WINDS IN THE NEW ORLEANS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO A FEW SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH QUICKLY MOVING RAINBANDS. AT 3 PM CDT...A NOAA BUOY REPORTED A 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 89 MPH...143 KM/HR WITH A GUST TO 112 MPH...180 KM/HR. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS 913 MB...26.96 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE COASTAL FLOODING. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM 15 INCH TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF RITA OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AS IT MOVES INLAND. BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK...TOTALS ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN. IN ADDITION...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS. REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...25.8 N... 89.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 913 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER AVILA |
