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| #47834 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:58 PM 22.Sep.2005) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2005 DEEP CONVECTION WITH RATHER COLD CLOUD TOPS REMAIN NEAR THE ALLEGED CENTER OF PHILIPPE. A 2207 UTC SSMI OVERPASS PROVIDED SOME IDEA AS TO THE CENTER LOCATION. EVEN THOUGH IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT A CLOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS...ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL IT BECOMES CERTAIN THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NO LONGER EXISTS. BASED ON A 2.5 DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. PHILIPPE REMAINS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. IN FACT...BOTH SAB AND TAFB BEGAN SUBTROPICAL CLASSIFICATIONS AT 0000 UTC ON THE BROADER LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF PHILIPPE. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS IN A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH DRY MID-LEVEL AIR SWEEPING OVER THE CYCLONE FROM THE SOUTH. IF PHILIPPE SURVIES...A MODEST INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE AS IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 345/15. THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS AND GFDL STILL SUGGESTING THAT PHILIPPE WILL SLOW DOWN AND NOT GET PICKED UP BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH/FRONTAL ZONE. THE NOGAPS AND UKMET ACCELERATE PHILIPPE AND/OR ITS EXTRATROPICAL LOW NORTHEASTWARD AND MERGES IT WITH THE FRONT IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO BUT IS NOT AS FAST WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION. THE TRACK WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD BUT IT REMAINS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0300Z 28.8N 58.3W 35 KT 12HR VT 23/1200Z 30.7N 59.1W 35 KT 24HR VT 24/0000Z 33.0N 59.8W 35 KT 36HR VT 24/1200Z 35.3N 58.2W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 25/0000Z 36.5N 55.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 26/0000Z...ABSORBED WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE. |
