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| #47954 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:28 AM 23.Sep.2005) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005 THE LEFTWARD BEND IN TRACK CONTINUES...AND INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW AROUND 290/16...ALTHOUGH THE SHORTER-AVERAGE SPEED IS EVEN FASTER. PHILIPPE IS CAUGHT IN THE FLOW AROUND A LARGER DEEP-LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED ABOUT 200 N MI TO THE SOUTH. IN FACT...PHILIPPE NOW HAS THE APPEARANCE OF AN EMBEDDED LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM...AND MAY NO LONGER HAVE A CLOSED CIRCULATION. SINCE THE LARGER CIRCULATION TO THE SOUTH IS BECOMING THE DOMINANT WEATHER SYSTEM...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR PHILIPPE TO BECOME ABSORBED AND DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE...PHILIPPE COULD DISSIPATE EVEN SOONER. THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. EVEN IF PHILIPPE DISSIPATES...TROPICAL STORM OR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE AFFECTING THE ISLAND AS A RESULT OF THE LARGER CYCLONE TO THE SOUTH. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/1500Z 31.1N 63.2W 35 KT 12HR VT 24/0000Z 31.5N 66.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 24/1200Z...ABSORBED...DISSIPATED |
