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| #47960 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:55 AM 23.Sep.2005) TCDAT3 HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005 RITA HAS WEAKENED SINCE YESTERDAY. THE EYE IS NOT AS DISTINCT AND THE CONVECTION IS NOT AS INTENSE AS 24 HOURS AGO. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WHICH HAS RISEN TO AROUND 927 MB AND WINDS HAVE DECREASED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN TO 115 KNOTS. UNLESS ANOTHER EYEWALL CYCLE OCCURS THAT COULD BRING THE WINDS TEMPORARILY UP A LITTLE BIT...THE OVERALL TENDENCY IS FOR RITA TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY. SO FAR THE PASSAGE OF RITA OVER THE WARM EDDY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS NOT RESULTED IN INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...RESEARCH SUGGESTS THERE IS A LAG IN THE ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE. NEVERTHERLESS...RITA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS CATEGORY 3 OR...A LITTLE LESS LIKELY...CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY. UPPER-AIR DATA SHOWS THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTROLLING THE MOTION OF THE HURRICANE IS ALREADY NORTH AND EAST OF RITA AND IS CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS AND TENNESSEE. CONSEQUENTLY...RITA HAS TURNED MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND IS NOW MOVING 310 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE LANDFALL NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS OR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COAST EARLY SATURDAY. ONCE INLAND...THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND RITA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVER NORTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS. RITA BY THEN WILL LIKELY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS VERY CLOSELY THE MODEL CONSENSUS. RITA IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD A GREAT DISTANCE. A SOND DROPPED FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED 56 KNOTS SURFACE WINDS ABOUT 120 N MI WEST OF THE EYE. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/1500Z 27.4N 91.9W 115 KT 12HR VT 24/0000Z 28.3N 93.1W 115 KT 24HR VT 24/1200Z 30.0N 94.2W 100 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 25/0000Z 31.5N 95.0W 45 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 25/1200Z 33.0N 94.5W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 26/1200Z 33.5N 94.0W 25 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 27/1200Z 33.5N 94.0W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 28/1200Z 33.5N 94.0W 25 KT...INLAND |
