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| #48143 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 PM 23.Sep.2005) TCDAT3 HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005 DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT THROUGH ABOUT 00Z INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS HOVERING NEAR 930 MB THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS HAD STILL BEEN 120-125 KT. WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY FROM SLIDELL LOUISIANA...LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA...AND HOUSTON TEXAS STILL DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED EYE THAT IS JUST A FEW HOURS FROM REACHING THE COASTLINE NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER. THE EYEWALL REMAINS INTACT AND INTENSE... ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE... WITH A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 20 N MI... SURROUNDED BY DENSE AND WELL-DEVELOPED SPIRAL BANDING. VELOCITIES FROM THE RADARS SUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE WINDS HAVE NOT FALLEN OFF MUCH AND SUPPORT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 105 KT. RITA REMAINS A FORMIDABLE MAJOR HURRICANE... AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS IT HAS OVER WATER... SO RITA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AT CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE BACK IN THE SYSTEM SHORTLY. RITA IS APPROACHING THE COAST ALONG A SLIGHTLY WOBBLY HEADING OF 325 DEGREES AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS... JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. ASIDE FROM THE COMMONLY OBSERVED WOBBLES... THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL... FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. BEYOND THEN... THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST OF A STALL OVER NORTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS... AS RITA WILL LIKELY BECOME TRAPPED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CELLS TO ITS EAST AND WEST. THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS WELL INLAND AND FOR SEVERAL DAYS AFTER LANDFALL. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0300Z 29.1N 93.2W 105 KT 12HR VT 24/1200Z 30.1N 94.0W 85 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 25/0000Z 31.4N 94.5W 50 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 25/1200Z 32.8N 94.5W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 26/0000Z 33.5N 94.5W 25 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 27/0000Z 33.5N 94.5W 25 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 28/0000Z 33.5N 94.5W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 29/0000Z 33.5N 94.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING |
