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| #48218 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:58 AM 24.Sep.2005) TCDAT3 HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT SEP 24 2005 REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WSR-88D RADARS INDICATE THAT RITA MADE LANDFALL JUST EAST OF SABINE PASS ABOUT 0730Z WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF NEAR 105 KT AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 937 MB. SINCE LANDFALL...THE CONVECTION IN THE REMAINS OF THE NORTHWEST EYEWALL HAS BECOME QUITE INTENSE...POSSIBLY DUE TO INCREASED FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE OVER LAND. OVERALLL...RITA SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND... BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM IN 18-24 HR AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN 36 HR. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS UNLIKELY TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BEFORE 120 HR. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE FORECAST SLOW MOTION... WILL CONTINUE A THREAT FOR VERY HEAVY RAINS LONG AFTER THE WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/10. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN MORE NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HR WITH SOME DECELERATION...THEN TURN SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD. THE GUIDANCE THEN DIVERGES...WITH SOME OF THE MODELS CALLING FOR A LOOP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEST OF RITA...SOME CALLING FOR SLOW MOTION...AND THE GFS CALLING FOR A RAPID MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE SPREAD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WILL FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND CALL FOR LITTLE MOTION AFTER 48 HR. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0900Z 29.9N 93.9W 105 KT 12HR VT 24/1800Z 30.9N 94.3W 70 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 25/0600Z 32.3N 94.5W 40 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 25/1800Z 33.0N 94.0W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 26/0600Z 33.5N 93.5W 25 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 27/0600Z 33.5N 93.5W 25 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 28/0600Z 33.5N 93.5W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 29/0600Z 33.5N 93.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING |
