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| #4884 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:12 PM 13.Aug.2004) TCDAT3 HURRICANE CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004 THE CENTER OF CHARLEY HAS MOVED INLAND NEAR CHARLOTTE HARBOR FLORIDA. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE AT LEAST 125 KT AT LANDFALL AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 941 MB. THE CLOSED EYEWALL HAD SHRUNK TO A FIVE MILE DIAMETER. A FLIGHT LEVEL WIND SPEED OF 148 KNOTS CORRESPONDS TO A SURFACE WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF ABOUT 130 KT. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN RATHER QUICKLY OVER LAND. AN UNOFFICIAL WIND GUST TO 127 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED NEAR PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA ALONG WITH A 943.6 MB SURFACE PRESSURE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 015/19. THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO IS UNCHANGED WITH AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GLOBAL MODELS...EXCEPT FOR THE GFS WHICH IS SOMEWHAT TO THE EAST OF THE OTHER MODELS. THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR HURRICANE FORCE WHEN THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS AS NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW HURRICANE WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/2100Z 26.9N 82.2W 120 KT 12HR VT 14/0600Z 29.7N 81.1W 75 KT...OVER WATER 24HR VT 14/1800Z 33.9N 79.0W 60 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 15/0600Z 38.5N 76.3W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 15/1800Z 43.5N 72.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 16/1800Z 47.5N 66.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 17/1800Z 49.5N 60.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 18/1800Z...INLAND |
