Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #49311 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 PM 30.Sep.2005) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2005 METSAT-8 VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS DEPICTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY A CLOSED AND FAIRLY TIGHT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. MORE RECENTLY... SOME VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE SYSTEM HAS NOW ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... THE 19TH OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON. DVORAK T NUMBERS AT 18Z WERE 1.5 FROM SAB AND 2.0 FROM TAFB... AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 25 KT. THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY... ALTHOUGH THE MOTION DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO SUGGESTS A WESTWARD DRIFT... PERHAPS 275/2. THE LACK OF STEERING RESULTS FROM PRESENCE OF A DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 700 N MI TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION... RATHER THAN SUBTROPICAL RIDGING THAT IS MORE OFTEN IN PLACE ALONG ABOUT 25N AT THIS TIME OF YEAR. A CONTINUED SLOW MOTION IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS... UNTIL THE LOW TO THE NORTH DEPARTS NORTHEASTWARD AS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A TURN OF THE DEPRESSION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH... WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED... AS HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO ITS WEST AND RISE TO ITS EAST... AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAPE VERDES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN AND WEST OF THE NOGAPS AND GFDL BUT FASTER THAN THE GFS WHICH SEEMS SLOWED BY A SEEMINGLY SPURIOUS LOW TO ITS EAST. NONE OF THE MODELS FORECAST A MOTION NORTH OF 30N WITHIN FIVE DAYS DUE TO A RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE WIND SHEAR IS CURRENTLY NOT TOO PROHIBITIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT... AND THE SSTS EXCEED 28C. SOME STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS. BEYOND THEN... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE INTENSITY CHANGE SINCE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ALONG THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLIES. THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH ANTICIPATES CONTINUED STRENGTHENING TO 60 KT BY 120 HOURS... BUT THAT IS ALONG THE MUCH MORE SOUTHERLY BAMM TRACK... AND IT IS ALSO MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE GFDL. FORECASTER KNABB/BROWN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/2100Z 11.8N 32.9W 25 KT 12HR VT 01/0600Z 12.0N 33.2W 30 KT 24HR VT 01/1800Z 12.2N 33.6W 35 KT 36HR VT 02/0600Z 13.1N 34.4W 45 KT 48HR VT 02/1800Z 14.7N 35.3W 50 KT 72HR VT 03/1800Z 18.0N 36.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 04/1800Z 22.0N 37.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 05/1800Z 26.0N 37.0W 45 KT |
