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| #49402 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:31 AM 01.Oct.2005) TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202005 1500Z SAT OCT 01 2005 AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE. AT 10 AM CDT... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO CAMPECHE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 85.8W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 85.8W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 85.5W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 19.9N 86.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 20.8N 88.8W...INLAND YUCATAN MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 21.7N 90.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 22.5N 92.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 23.4N 95.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 23.5N 98.5W...INLAND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 23.0N 101.5W...DISSPATING INLAND MEXICO MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 85.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z FORECASTER STEWART |
