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| #49458 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:46 PM 01.Oct.2005) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT SAT OCT 01 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DRIFTING SLOWLY TOWARD THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO CAMPECHE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.5 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES... 155 KM... SOUTHEAST OF TULUM MEXICO AND ABOUT 95 MILES... 150 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... BUT A FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR... IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... THE DEPRESSION IS STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGE... SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION MAY OCCUR. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. DURING THE PAST HOUR... NOAA BUOY 42056 LOCATED NORTH OF THE CENTER BRIEFLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 34 MPH...54 KM/HR. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES... WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN BELIZE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS WESTERN CUBA. REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...19.2 N... 86.5 W. MOVEMENT DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER STEWART |
