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| #49459 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:14 PM 01.Oct.2005) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS ESSENTIALLY EVAPORATED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... THE LAST COUPLE OF IMAGES ARE SHOWING A SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -70C HAS DEVELOPED VERY NEAR THE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT OVERPASS REVEALED A LARGE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD THAT WILL LIKELY TAKE ANOTHER 6 HOURS OR SO TO SPIN DOWN... SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 30 KT... ESPECIALLY SINCE DEEP CONVECTION MAY BE STARTING TO REFIRE NEAR THE CENTER. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/07. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. TD-19 IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS... AND THEN TURN SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD... ASSUMING THE SYSTEM SURVIVES THAT LONG AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE GFDL MODEL IS THE FASTEST OF ALL OF THE MODELS AND RECURVES THE CYCLONE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST AFTER 72 HOURS. HOWEVER... THE GFDL MAKES THE SYSTEM A VERTICALLY DEEP 80-KT HURRICANE BY 96 HOURS... DESPITE 40-50 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST... AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS... MINUS THE GFDL CONTRIBUTION AFTER 72 HOURS SINCE IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER 26-27C SSTS. BY 48 HOURS... UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE AT LEAST 25 KT AND TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO NEAR 40 KT BY 72 HOURS. THE INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS SHOULD CREATE AT LEAST SLOW WEAKENING... BUT THE SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE BY 96 HOURS AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/2100Z 14.7N 34.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 02/0600Z 16.0N 34.9W 35 KT 24HR VT 02/1800Z 17.8N 35.7W 40 KT 36HR VT 03/0600Z 19.5N 36.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 03/1800Z 21.2N 37.1W 35 KT 72HR VT 04/1800Z 24.2N 37.4W 30 KT 96HR VT 05/1800Z 26.5N 37.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 06/1800Z 29.0N 35.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING |
