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| #49496 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:03 AM 02.Oct.2005) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 AM CDT SUN OCT 02 2005 ...DEPRESSION VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... ...ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF YUCATAN... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO CAMPECHE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.3 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES... 70 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TULUM MEXICO AND ABOUT 55 MILES... 90 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE DEPRESSION WILL BE MAKING LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FOR MOST OF TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD STILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER LANDFALL. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES... WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN BELIZE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS WESTERN CUBA. REPEATING THE 1 AM CDT POSITION...19.5 N... 87.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER KNABB |
