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#49517 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 AM 02.Oct.2005)
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM STAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202005
0900Z SUN OCT 02 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO
CAMPECHE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 87.5W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 87.5W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 87.2W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 20.1N 88.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.7N 90.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.0N 92.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.9N 94.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.5N 96.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 20.0N 97.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 87.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

FORECASTER KNABB