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| #49552 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:49 AM 02.Oct.2005) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM STAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 AM CDT SUN OCT 02 2005 ...STAN BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO CAMPECHE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM STAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.7 WEST... ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ABOUT 35 MILES... 60 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TULUM MEXICO. STAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR... THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STAN WILL BE MOVING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FOR MOST OF TODAY... BUT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STAN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WHILE MOVING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... BUT IT COULD RESTRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM SOON AFTER EMERGING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES... 165 KM... MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN BELIZE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...19.7 N... 87.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 AM CDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
