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#49572 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 AM 02.Oct.2005)
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM STAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202005
1500Z SUN OCT 02 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO
CAMPECHE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 88.1W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......105NE 105SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..105NE 105SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 88.1W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 87.7W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 20.2N 89.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.8N 91.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.0N 93.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...105NE 75SE 75SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.7N 95.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT...105NE 75SE 75SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.5N 97.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 25SE 25SW 45NW.
34 KT...105NE 75SE 75SW 105NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 20.0N 99.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 88.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN