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| #49575 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:58 AM 02.Oct.2005) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN OCT 02 2005 SHIP REPORTS FROM EIJV AND ZCAM4 JUST OFF THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN...AS WELL AS A QUIKSCAT PASS...INDICATE THAT EVEN THOUGH STAN IS MOVING INLAND IT IS MAINTAINING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN BANDS STILL OFFSHORE. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THESE DATA. ALTHOUGH STAN COULD MAINTAIN THESE WINDS DURING ITS PASSAGE OVER LAND...OFFSHORE FLOW MAKES IT UNLIKELY THAT THESE WINDS WOULD BE FELT ALONG THE NORTH AND WEST COASTS OF THE YUCATAN. FOR THIS REASON THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOT BEING UPGRADED TO A WARNING AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL MOTION IS HARD TO GAUGE BUT BELIEVED TO BE 290/6. AS A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS STATES LIFTS OUT...RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO BE MAINTAINED AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY BEND THE TRACK OF STAN TO THE LEFT AND TAKE IT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS STAN APPROACHES THE MEXICAN COAST...HOWEVER...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE MOTION COULD SLOW...BOTH BECAUSE IT WOULD BE NEARING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...AND BECAUSE OF A POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH A DISTUBANCE CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GFS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. ONCE IN THE GULF...STAN SHOULD HAVE A GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN...WITH WARM WATERS...LIGHT SHEAR...AND UPPER ANTICYCLONIC SUPPORT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE DECAY SHIPS GUIDANCE. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/1500Z 19.8N 88.1W 35 KT 12HR VT 03/0000Z 20.2N 89.3W 30 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 03/1200Z 20.8N 91.4W 40 KT...OVER WATER 36HR VT 04/0000Z 21.0N 93.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 04/1200Z 20.7N 95.2W 60 KT 72HR VT 05/1200Z 20.5N 97.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 06/1200Z 20.0N 99.0W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED |
