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| #49662 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 PM 02.Oct.2005) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN OCT 02 2005 STAN HAS JUST ABOUT COMPLETED ITS TRANSIT OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS...IT IS ESTIMATED THAT...FOR NOW... THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED TO JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. NONETHELESS...THE SYSTEM RETAINS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH SOME CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES. A PROMINENT UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYLONE IS SITUATED OVER STAN...AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ONCE THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHERE SURFACE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ALMOST 30 DEG C...STRENGTHENING IS HIGHLY LIKELY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 285/9. THE FLOW SOUTH OF A MID- TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. THIS WOULD TAKE THE CENTER NEAR OR ACROSS THE COAST OF MEXICO IN 2-3 DAYS. THERE IS...HOWEVER...A POTENTIAL COMPLICATION TO THE TRACK FORECAST. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...AND INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID- TO LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF WITHIN ROUGHLY 72 HOURS. THIS DEVELOPMENT COULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE SOON ENOUGH TO INFLUENCE STAN'S TRACK...AND DELAY ITS LANDFALL. THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ALSO TAKE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SLOWER OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF THAN THE EARLIER RUNS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT FASTER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. HOPEFULLY...AN ADDITIONAL SLOWING OF THIS FORECAST WILL NOT BE REQUIRED IN SUBSEQUENT ADVISORIES. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0300Z 20.8N 90.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 03/1200Z 21.0N 91.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 04/0000Z 21.0N 93.3W 45 KT 36HR VT 04/1200Z 20.7N 94.7W 55 KT 48HR VT 05/0000Z 20.4N 95.8W 65 KT 72HR VT 06/0000Z 20.0N 97.0W 55 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 07/0000Z 19.5N 98.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATED 120HR VT 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED |
