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| #49829 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:25 AM 04.Oct.2005) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM STAN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 AM CDT TUE OCT 04 2005 ...STAN ACCELERATES TOWARD THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO... ...VERY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH... ...HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED EASTWARD... AT 100 AM CDT...0600Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM EAST OF PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO CHILITEPEC. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO CHILITEPEC. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM STAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 94.1 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES... 220 KM... EAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO. STAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH... 17 KM/HR. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF STAN WILL BE VERY NEAR THE COAST BY LATE TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STAN IS VERY CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH AND ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STAN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA AS A HURRICANE OF CATEGORY ONE OR TWO INTENSITY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATES THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS FALLING RAPIDLY... WITH THE LATEST MEASUREMENT OF 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. STAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. REPEATING THE 1 AM CDT POSITION...19.3 N... 94.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER KNABB |
