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| #49857 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 AM 04.Oct.2005) TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE STAN ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT TUE OCT 04 2005 ...STAN BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO... AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING...FROM NORTH OF PALMA SOLA TO CABO ROJO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM PALMA SOLA SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO CHILITEPEC. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE STAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 94.4 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES... 195 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO. STAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH... 19 KM/HR. A CONTINUED SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THIS TRACK... STAN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. STAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...18.8 N... 94.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...SOUTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM CDT. FORECASTER KNABB |
