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| #49859 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 AM 04.Oct.2005) TCDAT5 HURRICANE STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE OCT 04 2005 MANY UNEXPECTED CHANGES HAVE OCCURRED WITH STAN OVERNIGHT. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN IN THE SYSTEM FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS... AND THE CENTER FIXES INDICATE STAN HAS BEEN MOVING PERSISTENTLY SOUTHWESTWARD OR 235/10. THIS IS MUCH FASTER THAN ANY OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS WERE FORECASTING... AND THERE DOES NOT NOW APPEAR TO BE ANY OBVIOUS REASON WHY THIS MOTION WILL NOT CONTINUE. UNLESS STAN SLOWS DOWN OR CHANGES DIRECTION VERY SOON... IT WILL CROSS THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATER THIS MORNING. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST ANTICIPATES THE CENTER TO BE ONSHORE IN LESS THAN 12 HOURS... AND TO CONTINUE INLAND INTO THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO WHERE IT SHOULD DISSIPATE IN LESS THAN 36 HOURS. EVEN THOUGH STAN WILL PROBABLY BE MOVING FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED ONCE IT IS INLAND... IT COULD STILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS OF COMPLEX TERRAIN. HOW STRONG STAN HAS BECOME THIS MORNING IS A BIT SPECULATIVE... BUT MOST OF THE AVAILABLE DATA SUPPORT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 65 KT AND MAKING STAN A HURRICANE. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN FALLING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT... AND AS I TYPE WAS JUST MEASURED AT 979 MB. FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN STEADILY INCREASING IN RESPONSE AND ARE VERY CLOSE TO SUPPORTING 65 KT SURFACE WINDS. THE AIRCRAFT RADAR DEPICTS WELL-DEFINED SPIRAL BANDING THAT ALMOST CLASSIFIES AS AN EYEWALL. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS ALSO BECOME VERY IMPRESSIVE... WITH AN EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION DURING THE NIGHT AND CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -90C. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS 65 KT. WHILE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS STAN INLAND AT 12 HOURS WITH A 65 KT INTENSITY... IT COULD BE STRONGER AT LANDFALL. PREPARATIONS MUST BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0900Z 18.8N 94.4W 65 KT 12HR VT 04/1800Z 18.4N 95.4W 65 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 05/0600Z 18.2N 96.2W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED |
