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| #4990 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 PM 13.Aug.2004) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004 THE DEPRESSION IS SHOWING IMPROVED ORGANIZATION...WITH A MARKED INCREASE IN BOTH BANDING AND CONVECTIVE VIGOR NEAR THE CENTER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 0Z WERE T2.5...AND SO THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. DANIELLE IS SOUTHEAST OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN SHARPLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST FROM ITS PRESENT WESTERLY TRACK OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OUTLIER FROM THIS SCENARIO IS THE NOGAPS...WHICH WEAKENS THE CYCLONE AND TAKES ITS REMNANTS WESTWARD. GIVEN THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT TREND THIS ALTERNATIVE HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED NORTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT IS STILL TO THE SOUTH OF MOST OF GUIDANCE. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LOW AND WATER TEMPERATURES WILL BE REASONABLY WARM FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK TAKES DANIELLE OVER SUB 27C WATER AFTER THAT HOWEVER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND THEN LITTLE CHANGE THEREAFTER...SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE NORTHWARD TRACK ADJUSTMENT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0300Z 12.7N 24.8W 35 KT 12HR VT 14/1200Z 13.0N 26.6W 40 KT 24HR VT 15/0000Z 13.7N 29.1W 45 KT 36HR VT 15/1200Z 14.3N 31.6W 50 KT 48HR VT 16/0000Z 15.0N 34.0W 55 KT 72HR VT 17/0000Z 17.0N 38.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 18/0000Z 19.0N 42.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 19/0000Z 22.0N 46.0W 55 KT |
