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| #4991 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 PM 13.Aug.2004) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004 THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 21Z...AS WELL AS DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS...SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS ARE PERHAPS A LITTLE LOWER THAN EARLIER ESTIMATED. NEVERTHELESS...THE SYSTEM HAS A GOOD OUTFLOW PATTERN...AND...OTHER THAN THE RAPID FORWARD MOTION...ALL FACTORS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. BOTH THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE BRING THE DEPRESSION TO ABOUT 90 KT OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. I HAVE ELECTED TO GO A LITTLE BELOW THIS GUIDANCE BASED ON THE POOR SATELLITE AND QUIKSCAT PRESENTATION AND THE RAPID INITIAL MOTION. THE AFOREMENTIONED INITIAL MOTION IS 280/18. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED IN A DEEP EASTERLY CURRENT SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MOTION IS THEREFORE INDICATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LARGELY UPDATES THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL. WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EARLY SATURDAY. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0300Z 9.4N 48.3W 25 KT 12HR VT 14/1200Z 10.0N 51.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 15/0000Z 11.0N 54.5W 35 KT 36HR VT 15/1200Z 12.1N 58.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 16/0000Z 13.2N 61.3W 55 KT 72HR VT 17/0000Z 15.0N 67.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 18/0000Z 17.0N 73.0W 75 KT 120HR VT 19/0000Z 20.0N 78.5W 80 KT |
