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| #50012 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 PM 04.Oct.2005) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAN ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT TUE OCT 04 2005 ...STAN IS NOW A RAINMAKER... AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.8 WEST...OVER THE STATE OF OAXACA MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR. LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED BEFORE DISSIPATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY OVER WATER WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. STAN IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. STAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. RAINFALL OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IN THE STATES OF VERACRUZ...PUEBLA...AND OAXACA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...17.3 N... 96.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...SOUTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER AVILA |
