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| #50014 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 PM 04.Oct.2005) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE OCT 04 2005 SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT STAN HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND THE OVERALL CIRCULATION HAS BEEN DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD. THE CENTER IS ALREADY WELL INLAND OVER THE STATE OF OAXACA MEXICO. SOME MODELS BRING STAN TO THE PACIFIC WHERE REGENERATION IS POSSIBLE. ON THE OTHER HAND...SOME OTHER MODELS BRING A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION BACK OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. I WAS TEMPTED TO WRITE THE LAST ADVISORY BUT THIS IS A LARGE SYSTEM WHICH IS STILL PRODUCING 25 TO 30-KNOT WINDS OVER WATER ON THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ON THE PACIFIC SIDE. THE MAIN THREAT FROM STAN CONTINUES TO BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES LIKELY. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0300Z 17.3N 96.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 05/1200Z 16.5N 97.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 06/0000Z 16.5N 97.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED |
