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| #50133 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 AM 05.Oct.2005) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM TAMMY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED OCT 05 2005 AT 13Z THE CENTER OF TAMMY PASSED OVER NOAA BUOY 41009...WHICH REPORTED A PRESSURE JUST UNDER 1004 MB. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BUOY AND NWS RADAR INDICATE THAT TAMMY IS NOW MOVING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 12 KT. THIS RIGHTWARD DEFLECTION OF THE TRACK MAY BE A RESPONSE TO THE ASYMMETRIC DISTRIBUTION OF CONVECTION...WHICH REMAINS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. TAMMY IS LOCATED BETWEEN A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO TURN TAMMY TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH THE CENTER WILL JUMP OR REFORM TO THE RIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE CONVECTION. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON TAMMY OVERNIGHT...AND I AM GIVING THIS MODEL MORE THAN THE USUAL AMOUNT OF WEIGHT THIS MORNING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. BECAUSE TAMMY IS MOVING ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE FLORIDA COAST...AND BECAUSE MOST OF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH TAMMY IS WELL-REMOVED FROM THE CENTER...THE PRECISE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE LANDFALL OF THE CENTER IS OF RELATIVELY LITTLE IMPORTANCE. DOPPLER RADAR IS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF WINDS ALOFT...ABOUT 35 KT. BASED ON EARLIER SHIP AND BUOY REPORTS THE INTENSITY IS PRESUMED TO STILL BE NEAR 35 KT. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE STORM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE COULD ABATE JUST A LITTLE BIT BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SHEAR TO PREVENT RAPID DEVELOPMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. TAMMY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/1500Z 28.9N 80.3W 35 KT 12HR VT 06/0000Z 30.2N 81.3W 45 KT 24HR VT 06/1200Z 31.4N 82.6W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 07/0000Z 32.3N 83.8W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED |
