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| #5031 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:58 AM 14.Aug.2004) TCDAT3 HURRICANE CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004 A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FOUND MAX WINDS OF 88 KNOTS IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT AND NOT MUCH TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 994 MB. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 75 KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS HIGH BUT SINCE THE HURRICANE IS MOVING OVER WARM WATERS IT COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BIT BEFORE LANDFALL. THEREAFTER..CHARLEY SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. IN FACT...SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE HURRICANE IS ALREADY INTERACTING WITH A FRONTAL ZONE. CHARLEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 020 DEGREES AT 22 KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE TROUGH. THE HURRICANE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE FASTER DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THIS MORNING. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS WHICH UNANIMOUSLY TAKE THE HURRICANE NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0900Z 31.2N 80.5W 75 KT 12HR VT 14/1800Z 34.3N 78.8W 70 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 15/0600Z 39.0N 75.5W 55 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 15/1800Z 43.5N 72.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 16/0600Z 47.0N 67.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 17/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW |
