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| #5036 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 AM 14.Aug.2004) TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052004 0900Z SAT AUG 14 2004 WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 49.8W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 291 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 49.8W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 49.0W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 10.7N 52.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 12.0N 56.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 13.6N 59.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 25SE 25SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 14.8N 63.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 25SE 25SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.7N 71.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 30SE 30SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 18.6N 76.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 20.0N 81.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.8N 49.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z FORECASTER JARVINEN |
